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Will An Early Spring Bring Early Storms?

By IA Nation | Weather

Feb 28

Spring in February?

Recent studies performed by USGS has found that spring is arriving unusually early this year. The implications of this could spell trouble for multiple industries. Farmers, hunters, fishers, and more can all experience impacts. As mention in an USGA post:

“For example, changes in the timing of spring can affect human health, bringing early-season disease-carriers such as ticks and mosquitos, and an earlier, longer and more vigorous pollen season. And while a longer growing season can result in increased yields for some crops, it is risky because of the higher likelihood of plant damage caused by late frosts or summer drought. Even something as seemingly simple and beautiful as flowers blooming earlier can disrupt the critically important link between wildflowers and the arrival of birds, bees, and butterflies that feed on and pollinate the flowers. Such changes may prove beneficial to some plants and animals, including some harmful invasive ones, but may be detrimental to others.  Changes in seasons can affect economically and culturally important outdoor recreation activities, including affecting the timing of hunting and fishing seasons.” Read more on the study and impacts here.

What Does This Mean For Storm Potential?

After coming out of one of the strongest El Nino weather patterns recorded, it should be no surprise that we are having unusually warm temperatures through most states. In fact, the Weather Channel posted this image last November and also stating “Climate forecast models are in “unusually good agreement,” regarding the warmer-than-average temperatures expected this winter in the East…” Read more here.

For anyone who has studied severe weather or ever seen Dr. Greg Forbes, we know that there are some key elements needed for strong or even super-cell thunderstorms. One of those elements is to have surface air that is warm and humid that will help lead to atmospheric instability. As mentioned in this post,

“Warm air earlier in the season, or lasting through the winter, could foster more severe weather in parts of the Midwest and central and northern Plains states earlier in the year. If temperatures in March, for example, are more typical of April, then we would expect April-like severe weather chances. Remember, the weather does not have a calendar.

This warm air could also power more severe weather and potentially stronger storms in the South during the cooler months.”

We have already seen some early activity in the East a few days ago. This trend could continue in the coming months and provide storm activity a lot sooner than we are accustomed. Keep those licenses and certifications active and in good standing. You have been warned.

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